[Salon] When Reason Becomes a Slave to Passion



https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-09-22/when-reason-becomes-a-slave-to-passion?cmpid=BBD092222_prognosis

What a top US scientist got wrong

In November 2020, after almost a year of 100-hour work weeks, Francis Collins listened in on a phone call that he thought would change the world.

Collins, then director of the NIH, had been hoping for Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine to show at least 60% efficacy against death or severe illness; instead, as he heard on the call, it was a stunning 95% and the shot appeared very safe.  

“I thought, ok, this is it,” he recalled in remarks Sept. 16 at the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts Foundation Health Coverage Fellowship dinner. “We’re going to get through this.”

Americans are rational, Collins thought then, and persuading them to take the shot would be as simple as showing them those beautiful data.

“I hadn’t read very much about David Hume, about the way in which reason is a slave to the passions,” he said. With Covid, those passions are also “overlain with a lot of economic and political issues,” he added.

Prognosis Podcast: Doubt Part One, “Rumor Has It”

Many people refused immunization. More than 300,000 US deaths could have been prevented by Covid shots in the first year they were available, according to an analysis published in May 2021. Some 400 Americans still die every day from the illness, many of them unvaccinated.

Mobile vaccine clinics helped roll out shots in New York City in 2021 Photographer: Nina Westervelt/Bloomberg

Developing, manufacturing and distributing Covid vaccines was a herculean effort, costing close to $40 billion by one estimate. If Americans don’t trust this work because of myths and rumors, then a significant amount is wasted. 

What can be done? Collins, who remains an adviser to President Joe Biden, has some ideas. First off, he suggests an audit of the government’s messaging about Covid. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has already engaged in some breast-beating on this, but other agencies along with the White House deserve scrutiny as well.

While Covid rumors seemed outlandish, they were largely predictable, Collins said. Health officials didn’t do enough “pre-bunking” of the tall tales that were likely to come.

“We were basically outgunned dramatically by lies and conspiracies in social media,” he said. “We should have had our own version of flooding the system with truth, instead of having the system completely flooded with lies — we lost that one.”

The US may also consider creating a group dedicated to disseminating reliable scientific information, Collins said, perhaps staffed by graduate students, doctors and nurses.

Health officials should have been more forthcoming about how in an unfolding crisis, their understanding of the virus and best responses were constantly changing, he said.

Every bit of guidance should have been couched as “that’s the best we can do right now and it may change tomorrow,” Collins said. “We didn’t say that — we didn’t say it enough — and when it did change, people said: ‘These people don’t know what they’re doing, they’re just making stuff up.’”

Repairing trust in science will be crucial, not only when dealing with the next public health crisis, but to coordinate public cooperation in responding to climate change. If not, we’ll remain slaves to passion, misinformation and deadly forces of nature. — John Lauerman




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